Deal Stage Probability Forecast

The Deal Stage Probability forecast projects the amount of new MRR expected to close in a given month, calculated as deal value multiplied by win likelihood percentage.

For SaaS businesses, this gives sales leaders a realistic view of probable MRR, bridging pipeline activity and revenue planning without relying on hard totals alone. By weighing open deals against their likelihood of closing, teams can make more confident decisions around hiring, spend, and growth targets.

Screenshot of an example Deal Stage Probability forecast.

Use the forecast to:

Estimate future revenue by predicting the MRR your sales team will close in a defined time period.
Share a new MRR estimate with internal and external stakeholders.
Understand and plan to solve for any gaps between current growth and estimated targets.

You'll need to have a CRM seat to view this forecast.

Before you begin

Before viewing this forecast, you’ll need to set up your sales pipelines and create an opportunity.

Reading a Deal Stage Probability forecast

Access the Deal Stage Probability Forecast by navigating to Opportunities > Forecasts > Deal Stage Probability.

This forecast is a current view of estimated new MRR in each month. As opportunities are won, their win likelihood increases, increasing the total MRR value.

Each column is a month. The first month shows the remainder of the current month.

ChartMogul breaks the forecast down by opportunity owner. The total MRR value is the value of an opportunity multiplied by its current win likelihood percentage. The sum of these probabilities is the MRR value for each owner in each month.

Chart Notes

Only opportunities with the Value type MRR contribute to this chart. One-time opportunities are excluded.

Configuring your forecast

Use the Month Ending date picker to choose how far into the future you’d like to see.

The month of an opportunity’s Estimated Close is the month it contributes to in the report.

Use the Sales pipeline drop-down to display All pipelines or a select pipeline.

To see MRR gained from won opportunities in the month, select Include won opportunities.

Select a cell to view open Opportunities.

Export the forecast as CSV by clicking EXPORT (CSV).

Next Steps

Track forecasted MRR for each forecast category with the Forecast Category Report.
See the total amount of MRR from subscribers with Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR).